The Center for Immigration Studies is reporting a significant decrease in the nationwide illegal alien population :
Monthly data collected by the Census Bureau through May 2008 shows a significant decline in the number of less-educated, young Hispanic immigrants in the country. The evidence indicates that the illegal immigrant population may have declined by over one million in the last year. There are strong indications immigration enforcement is responsible for at least part of the decline. The economy also is likely playing a role.
Among the findings:
Our best estimate is that the illegal immigrant population has declined by 11 percent through May 2008 after hitting a peak in August 2007.
The implied decline in the illegal population is 1.3 million since last summer, from 12.5 million to 11.2 million today.
The estimated decline of the illegal population is at least seven times larger than the number of illegal aliens removed by the government in the last 10 months, so most of the decline is due to illegal immigrants leaving the country on their own.
One indication that stepped-up enforcement is responsible for the decline is that only the illegal immigrant population seems to be affected; the legal immigrant population continues to grow.
Another indication enforcement is causing the decline is that the illegal immigrant population began falling before there was a significant rise in their unemployment rate.The importance of enforcement is also suggested by the fact that the current decline is already significantly larger than the decline during the last recession, and officially the country has not yet entered a recession.
While the decline began before unemployment rose, the evidence indicates that unemployment has increased among illegal immigrants, so the economic slow-down is likely to be at least partly responsible for the decline in the number of illegal immigrants.
There is good evidence that the illegal population grew last summer while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost immediately.
If the decline were sustained, it would reduce the illegal population by one-half in the next five years.
A clear trend is emerging, enforcement works. While Stevens Miller and others on our Board of Supervisors wring their hands over concerns of cancer and racism, a countless number of cities, counties, and states are tackling a difficult problem head on, with demonstrable results.
This also confirms that with enforcement, and a decrease in public benefits, many illegal alien residents will leave of their own accord.
Too bad our BOS refuses to lead on this issue, as has the governing body of Prince William County, and closer to home, Herndon.
We can still hope.
Tags: CIS, Stevens Miller
That is a most interesting report. In my neck of the woods in Loudoun County we have seen a great number of recent move-outs by Hispanic immigrants. We thought that this was just a shift of residences by people who had lost jobs and/or got caught up in the subprime mortgage crunch and that we would probably find them crowded into homes elsewhere where there was no HOA to breathe down their necks. Maybe some of them are moving farther away than we thought.
Loudoun County is an anomaly in the sense it has not followed the pattern of PW or Herndon despite bordering both and also having a substantial illegal immigration problem. The reason is, the problem is concentrated in Sterling south of Rt 7, with patches of problem areas developing north of 7, and only minimal impact anywhere west of Rt. 28. Thus, while the people of Sterling Park are hopping mad, the other areas have not seen such an outcry from the citizens. So besides Delgaudio, the Supervisors have not felt much pressure to do anything at all.
I think this is going to change, but the idiosyncrasies of our political landscape dictate that we’re probably not going to see any “local immigration enforcement” whatsoever from the BOS.
But it does seem like the entire BOS might be getting the message that certain critical government functions such as zoning enforcement are not taking place at all – that there is something seriously wrong in the Dept of Building and Development.
I couldn’t tell you very much about Stevens Miller but I have to think the idea we are spending money for a zoning enforcement team that accomplishes exactly bupkiss must strike him and all the other Supervisors as a problem.
I am having a hard time rationalizing Chairmen York’s comment about 1.5 zoning inspectors. If you look at the Zoning Administration budget for 2008 it around $2.5 million. Building and Development budget was something like $20 million..
Since Sup. Miller reportedly made that so-called “cancer” remark at the citizens meeting in Sterling Park, we have heard virtually nothing more from him. As I recall, the only other thing was some disagreement with the term “quality of life” at the subsequent BOS planning meeting. I hear they changed the term to something more satisfactory to everybody. Maybe they thought that such a momentous change was enough to justify their pay last month!
There is one big, sad fact about Loudoun politicians: they just never learn how to communicate with the rest of us. Given the apparent reactions to the “cancer” remark, you would think Sup. Miller might want to elaborate a bit on it. Chew us out if you feel you really have to but at least let us get an idea of where you are going in all this. The Dulles and Sterling districts are side by side. What’s eating up the Sterling District may well look to the Dulles District for its next meal!
Email responses I have received from Supervisor Miller indicate he was in favor of the board requesting from the Chamber of Commerce a plan to deal with illegal hiring in the county.
My follow up emails to him, several months later, the CoC plan is still pending. Not much of a surprise here is there ?
I may be geographically ignorant, but isn’t the section of the Dulles District that bumps up against the Sterling District mainly commercial? I’d think the flow of illegals migrating from one neighborhood to another would flow in other directions, since I know that several houses across Rt 7 in Cascades have become a problem with overcrowding.
Shiplap nails it ! Correctly ID’ing the obvious cause and effect that those jurisdictions having the political guts and foresight to act are having on the migration of illegals.
Does everyone see why I like to use the term Illegal migrant ? What we are seeing is just that, migration from jurisdiction to jurisdiction based on the level of pressure brought to bare by any one political body.
Fairfax County is now waking up ( 2500 new students from Prince William County )some in their BOS sees the trend and the costs associated with this mass exodus of illegals into their county.
Due to inaction and political stupidity it is Loudoun County tax payers who will be left holding the bag.
By watching Stevens Miller you will realize he doesn’t have an idea (or a clue), he just seeks clarification or understanding which is also what everyone else in earshot needs when he speaks. He also has a soulmate in Andrea McGumby who gives us stories of her childhood (you know, pork chop around the neck so dog would like her thing) and comes up with “I see colors” type of rosey statements. Neither one of these supervisors has a clue or cares about what really goes on in the county. They are followers being steered in a direction. Yes, illegal aliens will always be with us because there are bigger and better fish to fry. And while we’re at it, let’s stop trashing Sterling and making the county look bad. Talk it up for once. From what I’ve heard “We have trees!”. Well don’t I feel better now!
cmac – is Broadlands in the Dulles District ?
“He also has a soulmate in Andrea ”
I believe this, they do vote together on many issues..
Dear John McCain and the RNC,
“There is good evidence that the illegal population grew last summer while Congress was considering legalizing illegal immigrants. When that legislation failed to pass, the illegal population began to fall almost immediately.”
Please read this paragraph at least twice.
Dan, I need a map of the county, I don’t know if Broadlands is in the Dulles District. I was thinking that since Sterling neighbors Sugarland with little commercial buffer, it is probably not a big leap to move a boarding house from SP to Cascades. Apparently it has already happened in a couple instances. We have an HOA over here that at times has teeth (depending on the situation), but if our HOA relied on zoning to enforce, we’d be in the same boat.
Cmac, here you go :
http://www.loudoun.gov/Default.aspx?tabid=1035
Looks like South Riding is the big kahuna of this district..
Do the zoning inspectors even know how to get to South Riding?
What, they don’t know how to use mapquest or google maps ?
speaking of google maps, how about a little friday levity ?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPgV6-gnQaE
Look away!
That is hilarious
Joe,
“Loudoun County is an anomaly in the sense it has not followed the pattern of PW or Herndon despite bordering both and also having a substantial illegal immigration problem. ”
The Board of Supervisors has a very simple decision to make ; “Now that we have decided that we will not address the root cause of some of the major issues facing eastern Loudoun, will we focus on remediation of the symptoms”.
The issues and symptoms as I see them :
Dead bodies in Sterling shopping centers and communities.
Some very nice neighborhoods in decline. Yes Loudoun, Sterling does have some very nice neighborhoods. Potomac Falls, Ashburn, and South Riding do not hold a monopoly on this.
Zoning infractions not being enforced and in many cases, totally overlooked.
Wanted posters for some rather heinous crimes are becoming commonplace in the storefronts of local businesses.
Until such time that the Board of Supervisors does step up to the plate, and take a few solid swings, I suggest that we continue to target them at every opportunity that is presented to us. They must receive an unmistakable message that lip service, and gross negligence, will no longer be tolerated.
You are right that much of the “border” between Sterling District and Dulles District is commercial — not all, but most of it. If I’m not mistaken, Old Ox Road (Rte 606) may be the actual demarcation line. I think that’s why former Sup. Snow joined with Delgaudio in protesting the day laborer center up there. That said, while the move from SP across Route 7 may be the easier one, since when has that much distance ever stopped these guys? They have been moving into SP from Manassas for a long time now, long before PWC ever got serious about the illegal alien issue. I think that South Riding and the Route 50 corridor may be in for a big surprise, long before even Broadlands and Brambleton. Lots of townhomes out there now. From what I have seen the crime rate in South Riding may be starting to go up a bit already, principally car and home breakins. Route 50 and Route 28 are very handy escape routes.