Comments on: The Polls Are Misleading And Bogus http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/ updated, and a little more mellow Sat, 20 Mar 2010 00:49:31 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.9.2 hourly 1 By: el jefe the student http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14244 el jefe the student Wed, 29 Oct 2008 22:44:34 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14244 most of the polls are +/- 3%. whats up with a thrid of a percent? you can see from the map that those states that were within this margin of error were noted as "toss ups." even so, they had all but one state right among those that were within the margin of error. that's pretty good! most of the polls are +/- 3%. whats up with a thrid of a percent? you can see from the map that those states that were within this margin of error were noted as “toss ups.” even so, they had all but one state right among those that were within the margin of error. that’s pretty good!

]]> By: The Bulletproof Monk http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14219 The Bulletproof Monk Wed, 29 Oct 2008 17:38:44 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14219 But what was the margin of error? Was it in the immediate ballpark of .33 of one percent?? But what was the margin of error? Was it in the immediate ballpark of .33 of one percent??

]]> By: el jefe the student http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14154 el jefe the student Wed, 29 Oct 2008 03:18:23 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14154 they were really close, the only one it looks like they got wrong was wisconsin, which they had in bush's favor, but actually went to kerry. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11 they were really close, the only one it looks like they got wrong was wisconsin, which they had in bush’s favor, but actually went to kerry.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/RCP_Electoral_Count_Chart.html

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=11

]]> By: The Bulletproof Monk http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14138 The Bulletproof Monk Wed, 29 Oct 2008 02:05:00 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14138 Nearly 14% of the Midwest likely voters are still undecided. This might sound off to those of us who made up our mind on day one...but these people live in the midwest....They are not super delegates. They're normal people busy living life. What else is weird is the Catholic Vote. They show 18% undecided...almost as if they're all waiting to see who sticks his foot in his mouth over abortion. And the final group in today's IBD.... Independents. Undecided likely voters who consider themselves undecided Independents are at 17% in the polling. Yessir, this thing is still in play. Nearly 14% of the Midwest likely voters are still undecided. This might sound off to those of us who made up our mind on day one…but these people live in the midwest….They are not super delegates. They’re normal people busy living life.
What else is weird is the Catholic Vote. They show 18% undecided…almost as if they’re all waiting to see who sticks his foot in his mouth over abortion.

And the final group in today’s IBD…. Independents. Undecided likely voters who consider themselves undecided Independents are at 17% in the polling.

Yessir, this thing is still in play.

]]> By: The Bulletproof Monk http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14134 The Bulletproof Monk Wed, 29 Oct 2008 01:49:20 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14134 How close was rcp?? Was it as close as 3/10th of a percent?? How close was rcp?? Was it as close as 3/10th of a percent??

]]> By: el jefe the student http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14122 el jefe the student Tue, 28 Oct 2008 23:27:49 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14122 wow, gilmore is going to get trounced! i remember when ollie north nearly won a senate seat, virginia has changed. joe, they weight people that they sample differently, so if they oversample from heavily dem areas those responses will count less in estimating the percentages (and may increase the sampling error). they aren't doing anyone a service if they are purprosely biased, they wouldn't still be reported. i think several biases overestimate obama's lead, but i don't think it's a conspiracy. also, if you look at rcp polls, they almost perfectly called the 04 election, calling ohio for bush. wow, gilmore is going to get trounced! i remember when ollie north nearly won a senate seat, virginia has changed. joe, they weight people that they sample differently, so if they oversample from heavily dem areas those responses will count less in estimating the percentages (and may increase the sampling error). they aren’t doing anyone a service if they are purprosely biased, they wouldn’t still be reported. i think several biases overestimate obama’s lead, but i don’t think it’s a conspiracy. also, if you look at rcp polls, they almost perfectly called the 04 election, calling ohio for bush.

]]> By: The Bulletproof Monk http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14102 The Bulletproof Monk Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:55:26 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14102 There are a larger number of bearing factors on this year's results. I cover them at the blog. What is going to be very important is the effect of the voter fraud. The range of that improper activity is going to ultimately influence the legitimate results. As before when the media has used exit polls to shore up their reporting, those exit polls are not a concrete indicator this year...due in large part to the Bradley Effect. They'll pull for McCain, and then report to the exit poll that they pulled for Obama. The two won't jive. http://thebulletproofmonk.blogspot.com/2008/10/hell-everybody-else-did-it.html There are a larger number of bearing factors on this year’s results. I cover them at the blog.
What is going to be very important is the effect of the voter fraud. The range of that improper activity is going to ultimately influence the legitimate results.
As before when the media has used exit polls to shore up their reporting, those exit polls are not a concrete indicator this year…due in large part to the Bradley Effect. They’ll pull for McCain, and then report to the exit poll that they pulled for Obama. The two won’t jive.

http://thebulletproofmonk.blogspot.com/2008/10/hell-everybody-else-did-it.html

]]> By: suburbanite http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14098 suburbanite Tue, 28 Oct 2008 19:27:42 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14098 I guess I saw a different show last night, zim. I guess I saw a different show last night, zim.

]]> By: zimzo http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14080 zimzo Tue, 28 Oct 2008 15:38:37 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14080 Suburbanite, she actually said “Here I sit, perhaps to become the next First Lady of the United States if the voters choose.” You left out "perhaps" and there was no pause before "if the voters choose." http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szLefHwrwdI When you guys lie, it just makes you look bad. Suburbanite, she actually said “Here I sit, perhaps to become the next First Lady of the United States if the voters choose.” You left out “perhaps” and there was no pause before “if the voters choose.”
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szLefHwrwdI

When you guys lie, it just makes you look bad.

]]> By: suburbanite http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14074 suburbanite Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:25:44 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14074 Cathymac, I enjoyed the closing portion--"parents, turn off the TV and spend time with your children"--quoted in the Post column. This from the guy that the same column quotes as having over 150% MORE ads running on TV than McCain. Anyone see Michele Obama's slip of the tongue on Leno last night? In addressing the "proud of country" issue, she had a long and moving account of the hardships her father endured to raise the family and the values he instilled, and wound up with a rousing statement that it is proof the country works, because "here I sit, about to be First Lady of the United States!" She immediately laid rubber backing up with qualifiers to the effect that it only happens "if the voters choose". Sounds a lot like when Gore declared the debate on global warming "over". The Obama "brand" marketing strategy has declared the election over. Cathymac, I enjoyed the closing portion–”parents, turn off the TV and spend time with your children”–quoted in the Post column.

This from the guy that the same column quotes as having over 150% MORE ads running on TV than McCain.

Anyone see Michele Obama’s slip of the tongue on Leno last night?

In addressing the “proud of country” issue, she had a long and moving account of the hardships her father endured to raise the family and the values he instilled, and wound up with a rousing statement that it is proof the country works, because “here I sit, about to be First Lady of the United States!”

She immediately laid rubber backing up with qualifiers to the effect that it only happens “if the voters choose”.

Sounds a lot like when Gore declared the debate on global warming “over”.

The Obama “brand” marketing strategy has declared the election over.

]]> By: Cathymac http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14073 Cathymac Tue, 28 Oct 2008 13:03:36 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14073 There are some many thoughts that come to mind when viewing this Obama 'ad' - actually it is more of a directive from his Highness: http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=206933&comments=1#comments First thought, take the day off work because you are going to be losing your job anyways under Obama - why not start early? Second thought, interesting that Obama thinks so little of what American's do with their lives - can't make history doing anything BUT helping BO on election day. There are some many thoughts that come to mind when viewing this Obama ‘ad’ – actually it is more of a directive from his Highness:

http://www.breitbart.tv/?p=206933&comments=1#comments

First thought, take the day off work because you are going to be losing your job anyways under Obama – why not start early?

Second thought, interesting that Obama thinks so little of what American’s do with their lives – can’t make history doing anything BUT helping BO on election day.

]]> By: Joe Budzinski http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14067 Joe Budzinski Tue, 28 Oct 2008 07:05:26 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14067 Guess we will find out soon, eh? Guess we will find out soon, eh?

]]> By: Stay Puft Marshmallow Man http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/comment-page-1/#comment-14066 Stay Puft Marshmallow Man Tue, 28 Oct 2008 06:56:18 +0000 http://novatownhall.com/2008/10/28/the-polls-are-misleading-and-bogus/#comment-14066 "The Polls Are Misleading And Bogus" hmm “The Polls Are Misleading And Bogus”

hmm

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